Methodology of Multi-criteria Analysis of Changes in Unemployment Rates in Selected World Economies and Forecasting with the ARIMA Model of the US Unemployment Rate for the Future

Abstract

The article presents the methodology of multi-criteria analysis of unemployment interest rates in selected world economies, and an attempt to forecast the unemployment rate in the USA for three future periods. The research began with an analysis of the multidimensional volatility of unemployment interest rates in selected world economies on a six-month basis in 2011-2018. It was then assessed. The next stage of the study was the analysis and evaluation of the time series of data on the US unemployment interest rates in dynamic terms. Then, the ARIMA forecast model was built and forecasting for three future periods was performed.

Keywords

• unemployment
• forecasting
• arima model