Nonstationary Responses of Demersal Fishes to Environmental Variations in Temperate Waters of the Northwestern North Pacific under a Changing Climate

Abstract

Although nonstationarity in marine ecosystems has attracted great attention, the nonstationary responses of demersal fishes to environmental variations induced by the changing climate are still not well understood. Here, we collected 21 time series of demersal fishes from 1956 to 2015 to investigate the climate-induced nonstationary responses in temperate waters of the northwestern North Pacific (NWP). We showed that these demersal fishes experienced state shifts in approximately 1986/87, accompanied by abrupt warming over this region. Moreover, the relationships between demersal fishes and sea surface temperature (SST) were found to change between the two identified eras (i.e., a weak relationship before 1986 and a strong negative relationship after 1986), which may be primarily caused by the alternating dominance of the East Asian winter monsoon and mega-ENSO on SST in temperate waters of the NWP. The identified climate-induced nonstationary responses of demersal fishes to SST variability in this study may provide implications for understanding climate-induced biological dynamics, predicting demersal fish fluctuations, coping with potential ecological risks, and the sustainable exploitation of fishery resources in the future climate. Note that the impact of fishing on the demersal fishes in temperate waters of the NWP was not assessed in this study due to the lack of fishing effort data and therefore the conclusions of our research should be approached with caution.

Keywords

• demersal fishes
• nonstationary responses
• global warming
• climate change
• mega-ENSO