ANALYSIS OF EMERGENCY SITUATIONS DEVELOPING IN THE MODE WITH AGGRAVATION

Abstract

Background. The relevance of this development is due to the scientific popularity of the development of the use of neural networks and intelligent technologies in industry and the low efficiency of modern emergency protection systems, which have significant drawbacks, the main of which are "missing the target" and "false alarm". The purpose of this work is to improve the safety and technical and economic efficiency of existing control and management systems, based on the methods of the theory of developing processes with aggravation. Materials and methods. Within the framework of this study, methods of modern theory of automatic control, methods of identification of technological objects and methods of computer modeling were used. Results. The analysis of emergency situations developing in the mode with aggravation, the characteristic feature of which is the power law of development and three stages of accident development. The prediction of an emergency situation in the temperature control system of an electric generator was carried out using the method of sliding linearization, which allows to establish the beginning of its occurrence and to distinguish all three stages of the accident development. Conclusion. To achieve these goals, it is necessary to improve modern emergency protection systems. It is proposed to consider the development of the accident as a developing process with aggravation. For the analysis, it is proposed to use methods of sliding linearization of real time series, followed by forecasting the development of accidents.

Keywords

• accident
• emergency situation
• mode with aggravation
• sliding linearization