Assessing the impact of short-term ozone exposure on excess deaths from cardiovascular disease: a multi-pollutant model in Nanjing, China’s Yangtze River Delta

Abstract

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BackgroundOzone pollution is associated with cardiovascular disease mortality, and there is a high correlation between different pollutants. This study aimed to assess the association between ozone and cardiovascular disease deaths and the resulting disease burden in Nanjing, China.MethodsA total of 151,609 deaths from cardiovascular disease were included in Nanjing, China from 2013 to 2021. Daily data on meteorological and air pollution were collected to apply a generalized additional model with multiple pollutants to perform exposure-response analyses, stratification analysis, and evaluation of excess deaths using various standards.ResultsIn the multi-pollutant model, an increase of 10 μg/m3 in O3 was significantly associated with a 0.81% (95%CI: 0.49, 1.12%) increase in cardiovascular disease deaths in lag05. The correlation weakened in both the single-pollutant model and two-pollutant models, but remained more pronounced in females, the older group, and during warm seasons. From 2013 to 2021, the number of excess deaths attributed to ozone exposure in cardiovascular disease continued to rise with an increase in ozone concentration in Nanjing. If the ozone concentration were to be reduced to the WHO standard and the minimum level, the number of deaths would decrease by 1,736 and 10,882, respectively.ConclusionThe risk of death and excess deaths from cardiovascular disease due to ozone exposure increases with higher ozone concentration. Reducing ozone concentration to meet WHO standards or lower can provide greater cardiovascular disease health benefits.

Keywords

• ozone
• short-term exposure
• cardiovascular disease
• excess deaths
• multipollutant model