Mapping Homogeneous Response Areas for Forest Fuel Management Using Geospatial Data, K-Means, and Random Forest Classification

Abstract

Accurate description of forest fuels is necessary for developing appropriate fire management strategies aimed at reducing fire risk. Although field surveys provide accurate measurements of forest fuel load estimations, they are time consuming, expensive, and may fail to capture the inherent spatial heterogeneity of forest fuels. Previous efforts were carried out to solve this issue by estimating homogeneous response areas (HRAs), representing a promising alternative. However, previous methods suffer from a high degree of subjectivity and are difficult to validate. This paper presents a method, which allows eliminating subjectivity in estimating HRAs spatial distribution, using artificial intelligence machine learning techniques. The proposed method was developed in the natural protected area of “Sierra de Quila,” Jalisco, and was replicated in “Sierra de Álvarez,” San Luis Potosí and “Selva El Ocote,” Chiapas, Mexico, to prove its robustness. Input data encompassed a set of environmental variables including altitude, average annual precipitation, enhanced vegetation index, and forest canopy height. Four, three, and five HRAs with overall accuracy of 97.78%, 98.06%, and 98.92% were identified at “Sierra de Quila,” “Sierra de Álvarez,” and “Selva El Ocote,” respectively. Altitude and average annual precipitation were identified as the most explanatory variables in all locations, achieving a mean decrease in impurity values greater than 52.51% for altitude and up to 36.02% for average annual precipitation. HRAs showed statistically significant differences in all study sites according to the Kruskal–Wallis test (p-value p-value < 0.05) for all variables but EVI in “Selva El Ocote.” These results show the potential of our approach to objectively identify distinct homogeneous areas in terms of their fuel properties. This allows the adequate management of fire and forest fuels in decision-making processes.

Keywords

• fire management
• forest fuels
• homogeneous response areas
• machine learning