Time-Series Analysis of Oxygen as an Important Environmental Parameter for Monitoring Diversity Hotspot Ecosystems: An Example of a River Sinking into the Karst Underground

Abstract

Predicting variations in dissolved oxygen concentration (DO) is important for management and environmental monitoring of aquatic ecosystems. Regression analyses and univariate and multivariate time-series analyses based on autoregressive methods were performed to investigate oxygen conditions in the Pivka River, Slovenia. The monitoring site was established upstream where the river sinks into the karst cave Postojnska jama, which hosts one of the richest subterranean faunas yet studied worldwide. It was found that abnormal variations of DO started to be noticeable at values of DO < 3 mg/L and became more pronounced until the ecosystem reached fully anoxic conditions. The abnormal fluctuations during the critical summer period were due to environmental conditions, organic load and resident biota. Predictions for future detection of anomalies in DO values were made from stable residuals of the measured data, and it was demonstrated that the model could be used to obtain a reliable estimate for a short period, such as one day. The example presented an analysis pipeline based on specific and established threshold DO values, and it is particularly important for ecosystems with diversity hotspots where prolonged low DO values can pose a threat to their biota.

Keywords

• aquatic ecosystems
• dissolved oxygen
• modelling
• prediction