A Probabilistic Methodology to Quantify the Impacts of Cold Weather on Electric Vehicle Demand: A Case Study in the U.K.

Abstract

The wide adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is required for deep decarbonisation of transportation sector. The lithium-ion batteries that power EVs are temperature sensitive and electric ranges reduce under cold weather conditions due to excessive need for heating the battery and the driver’s cabin. Therefore, some drivers may need to charge more often during the same day. In this paper, probabilistic modelling and simulation of large-collections of EV charging are presented and the impacts on power generation portfolio is investigated for the case of the UK. Particularly, the extra energy and power demands are quantified across different regions. Extensive simulations reveal that cold weather necessities an additional 630 MW of peak power when compared to optimal ambient temperatures. Simulation results further show that the hourly carbon intensity of the power grids could increase by 25% during cold days with low renewable generation. The problems pertinent to temperature effects on EV charging require greater attention as EVs are becoming the main mode of transport in the next decade.

Keywords

• Electric vehicles
• power grid impact
• battery degradation
• Monte Carlo simulation
• cold weather
• charging