RISK MANAGEMENT TECHNIQUE OF LANDSLIDES ACTIVATION WITH ACCOUNT OF SEISMIC ACTIVITY FACTOR IN KYRGYZSTAN

Abstract

The relevance of the research is caused by the need to manage the risk of landslide processes in Kyrgyzstan, which cause significant economic, environmental and social damage and lead to great loss of life. This is of great importance for sustainable use of natural resources, ensuring the safety of the population, economic and infrastructure facilities. One of the most important factors in the formation of landslide processes is seismic activity. The main aim of the research is to develop a risk management methodology for the activation of landslide processes based on the relationship between landslide processes and seismic activity in the Kyrgyzstan. Methods: data of International Seismological Center and Main Directorate of Ministry of Emergencies of Kyrgyzstan, regression analysis. Results. A risk management technique is proposed on the example of the risk of landslide activation in the natural conditions of Kyrgyzstan, taking into account the seismicity factor. The methodology involves assessing the risk of landslide processes, evaluating the cost-effectiveness of each activities to reduce risk, and evaluating the payback period of each measure. Based on the payback period, the ranking of activities is carried out and the effectiveness of each risk reduction activities is determined. To assess the risk of landslide activation, statistical analysis was used. In this work the correlation of the relationship between landslide processes and seismic activity (the sum of the magnitudes of earthquakes) was found, a regression analysis was performed. It was shown that a satisfactory linear correlation is observed between the number of landslide processes and the sum of earthquake magnitudes from 1969 to 2010 in the Osh, Jalal-Abad and Batken regions of Kyrgyzstan. The risk of landslide processes was assessed for the village of Askaly, Alai district, Osh region of Kyrgyzstan. A number of activities are proposed to reduce the risk of landslide processes, the effectiveness and payback of these activities is evaluated. It is shown that forest reclamation protection can be considered effective in terms of costs.

Keywords

• risk management
• prediction
• landslide processes
• seismic activity
• regression analysis
• economic efficiency