An Innovative Dynamic Model for Predicting Typhoon Track Deflections over Complex Terrain

Abstract

This study presents an innovative, dynamic model for predicting typhoon track deflections over complex terrain. Based on potential vorticity conservation, the model incorporates a topographic adjusting parameter (α) and a meridional adjusting velocity (MAV) to capture the vortex’s response to terrain variations. Simulations using an idealized bell-shaped mountain and Taiwan’s realistic topography reveal that steeper terrain gradients consistently deflect typhoon tracks southward. This steering effect intensifies with increasing vortex strength due to a larger α, leading to enhanced MAV. Shallower approach angles also amplify deflections due to prolonged terrain interaction. Results highlight the significant role of Taiwan’s Central Mountain Range in shaping typhoon trajectories. This model offers a refined approach for predicting typhoon behavior near complex terrain, advancing forecasting capabilities, and enhancing disaster preparedness strategies.

Keywords

• topographic steering
• typhoon track prediction
• dynamic model
• potential vorticity
• complex terrain
• disaster preparedness