Annals of the University of Petrosani: Economics (Dec 2014)
TENDENCIES REGARDING THE INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL GOVERNMENTAL PUBLIC DEBT IN ROMANIA
Abstract
Starting from the certitude that the resources are limited, the state in its desire to assure a minimum life standard for its citizens, to create jobs, to invest in infrastructure and in other purposes effectuates expenses which exceed the revenues, which in term determines the budget deficit. Financing the budget deficit involves calling for the resources of the internal and external financial markets, thus creating the internal and external public debt. The modality in which the state manages the public debt has represented and continues to represent a subject of actuality and the discussions regarding the level of budget deficit, the degree of indebtedness and its implications in the social wealth are permanently addressed. In this paper it is presented the evolution of the internal and external governmental public debt indicator between 2000 and 2014 and also its predictions between 2015-2020. The indicators’ evolution is highlighted with diagrams which are processed with the help of the EViews software, and for realizing the forecasts, a mono-variable will be used, specific to economic systems of the type SISO (Single Input – Single Output), more precisely an autoregressive seasonal model integrating moving average ARMA. The parameters’ values are estimated with the help of least squares method. The input variable is the period of time (2000-2014), and the output variable is the indicator for internal governmental public debt and for external governmental public debt. In the wake of proceeded analyses we can conclude the fact that the indicator of internal and external governmental public debt had an ascending trend between 2000-2014, and for 2015-2020 it is also forecast an ascendant evolution.
