Applying Decision Analysis and System Dynamics Community Governance in the Evaluation of Juvenile Delinquency Prevention Strategies

Abstract

From the perspective of juvenile delinquency prevention theory, this paper explores the current situation of juvenile delinquency in rural areas of W County and the mechanism of relevant functional departments in local community governance based on the questionnaire survey method. Then, six juvenile delinquency prevention service programs are selected as the object of evaluation research, and the intelligent decision analysis system of system dynamics is used as the tool of evaluation research to evaluate the six juvenile delinquency prevention programs systematically and comprehensively. The following conclusions were obtained after the analysis. The crime rate of rural youths in County W is as high as 15.8%, with a wide range of crimes. 81.6% of the relevant departments in community governance did not establish rural juvenile records, and about 13% of the departments did not conduct crime prevention training. The Green Clay People Juvenile Crime Prevention Program, which uses social connection theory as a strategy, has an evaluation value of 0.242, and the completion rate of the agreed service indicators specified in the contract is more than 100%. The overall evaluation of the six programs was 87% satisfied. Therefore, the intelligent decision analysis system in this paper has been well applied in the evaluation of juvenile crime prevention strategies, with the progress and development of society, and will occupy an important position in the future for a considerable time.

Keywords

• intelligent decision analysis system
• community governance
• crime prevention
• system dynamics
• 03b70