Comparative Analysis of the Demographic Development of the Regions of Kazakhstan

Abstract

This article examines the overall demographic development of Kazakhstan, including long-term trends in fertility and mortality. The study notes that the demographic development of the country in different regions is different, which, in turn, interferes with the demographic situation. This study used the method of SPSS analysis in computer technology using multivariate statistical and mathematical methods to group the regions of Kazakhstan into clusters according to six main indicators (total mortality, infant mortality, demographic load, proportion of triplets, nuptiality, frequency of abortions). As a result, the regions of Kazakhstan are divided into three clusters according to the process of demographic development. A comparative analysis of the demographic indicators of the regions in these three clusters and their intensity in comparison with the national level is carried out. According to the average indicator of 7 regions included in the first cluster, it was determined that they are in the direction of a regressive trend. The two largest cities of the second cluster - Nur-Sultan and Almaty - are based on a stationary process and progressive development of 8 regions of the third cluster. Cluster analysis revealed a high demographic potential in the third cluster region and depopulation in other cluster regions: Kostanay, North-East Kazakhstan regions, and Almaty. Therefore, when predicting future births and deaths, it is necessary to take into account the promising characteristics of each region and the trend of the system of indicators characterizing the current demographic situation, which determines the type of population growth in each region.

Keywords

• демографическая ситуация
• регионы
• тенденции
• практика кластерного анализа
• ранг