Infectious Disease Modelling (Jan 2021)

Compliance with NPIs and possible deleterious effects on mitigation of an epidemic outbreak

  • Maria Vittoria Barbarossa,
  • Jan Fuhrmann

Journal volume & issue
Vol. 6
pp. 859 – 874

Abstract

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The first attempt to control and mitigate an epidemic outbreak caused by a previously unknown virus occurs primarily via non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). In case of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which since the early days of 2020 caused the COVID-19 pandemic, NPIs aimed at reducing transmission-enabling contacts between individuals. The effectiveness of contact reduction measures directly correlates with the number of individuals adhering to such measures. Here, we illustrate by means of a very simple compartmental model how partial noncompliance with NPIs can prevent these from stopping the spread of an epidemic.

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