Ecological risk assessment and spatial–temporal differentiation of soil and water resources in the Hefei metropolitan area

Abstract

Abstract There are important ways to solve the ecological risk problems of regional water resources and soil resources, and to promote the benign development of soil and water resources, involving scientific evaluation of the ecological risk of soil and water resources in Hefei metropolitan area, clarifying the intrinsic evolution law of ecological risk and identifying the characteristics of spatial and temporal variations. Based on the conceptual model of “ST-QS-RR”, the evaluation indicator system is constructed, the CRITIC method is used to assign weights, and the TOPSIS method, kernel density method, markov chain and resistance model are used to measure and analyse the spatial and temporal characteristics of ecological risk of soil and water resources, and to explore the main factors that cause ecological risk of soil and water resources. The results of the study show that: (1) Hefei metropolitan area and its cities show a steady decline and the characteristics of “high in the north and low in the south, high in the west and low in the east”. (2) Most of the subsystems in the Hefei metropolitan area and the cities show a decreasing trend, with its resistance factors mainly concentrated in the QS system. (3) There is club convergence in Hefei metropolitan area. When the type of adjacent domain is higher, the change of risk type is more sensitive.

Keywords

• Soil and water resources
• Ecological risk
• CRITIC
• TOPSIS
• Kernel density
• Spatial markov chain