PLoS ONE (Jan 2014)

Predicting mortality among hospitalized children with respiratory illness in Western Kenya, 2009-2012.

  • Gideon O Emukule,
  • Meredith McMorrow,
  • Chulie Ulloa,
  • Sammy Khagayi,
  • Henry N Njuguna,
  • Deron Burton,
  • Joel M Montgomery,
  • Philip Muthoka,
  • Mark A Katz,
  • Robert F Breiman,
  • Joshua A Mott

DOI
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0092968
Journal volume & issue
Vol. 9, no. 3
p. e92968

Abstract

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BackgroundPediatric respiratory disease is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in the developing world. We evaluated a modified respiratory index of severity in children (mRISC) scoring system as a standard tool to identify children at greater risk of death from respiratory illness in Kenya.Materials and methodsWe analyzed data from children ResultsWe analyzed data from 3,581 children hospitalized with respiratory illness; including 218 (6%) who died. Low weight-for-age [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 2.1; 95% CI 1.3-3.2], very low weight-for-age (aOR = 3.8; 95% CI 2.7-5.4), caretaker-reported history of unconsciousness (aOR = 2.3; 95% CI 1.6-3.4), inability to drink or breastfeed (aOR = 1.8; 95% CI 1.2-2.8), chest wall in-drawing (aOR = 2.2; 95% CI 1.5-3.1), and being not fully conscious on physical exam (aOR = 8.0; 95% CI 5.1-12.6) were independently associated with mortality. The positive predictive value for mortality increased with increasing mRISC scores.ConclusionsA modified RISC scoring system based on a set of easily measurable clinical features at admission was able to identify children at greater risk of death from respiratory illness in Kenya.