Estimation of COVID-19 under-ascertainment in Kano, Nigeria during the early phase of the epidemics

Abstract

This study aims to estimate the number of COVID-19 cases under- ascertained (η), and the basic reproduction number (R0) during the early stage of epidemic in Kano, Nigeria. We adopt a simple exponential growth model to capture the patterns of COVID-19 early epidemic curve in Kano. The R0 is estimated at 2.7 (95%CI: 2.5, 3.0). We find that the number of COVID-19 cases under-ascertained likely occurred during the fourth week of April 2020, and should be considered for future epidemiological investigations and mitigation plan.

Keywords

• SARS-CoV-2
• COVID-19
• Statistical modelling
• Reproduction number
• Under-ascertainment
• Epidemic