Forecast of electricity consumption in Yakutia – Strategizing Horizon 2032

Abstract

The paper presents the results of strategizing the development of the electric power industry on the territory of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) in accordance with the scenarios of the development of the fuel and energy complex until 2032. The purpose of the research was to build electricity balances of the Yakutia for a long-term period taking into account the level of uncertainty. Scenarios for the development of the electric power industry have been developed using modeling methods considering the existing programs and schemes for the development of the electric power industry of the Yakutia. The assessment of the required capacity and electricity by 2032 was carried out on the basis of an assessment of the volume of prospective electricity consumption in accordance with the updated forecast of socio-economic development of the Yakutia until 2032. When forecasting individual indicators at the municipal level, disaggregation was carried out, considering the location of electric power facilities. The electricity balances in the forecast model are used to reflect the prospective consumption volumes and possible (potential) volumes of electricity production (generation) at the “available” capacity. In the proposed scenarios of electricity consumption and production, it can be noted that there is no tendency to reduce the electrical capacity of the domestic, regional product. The obtained research results can be used in regional economic management systems.