Наукові праці Лісівничої академії наук України (Oct 2018)
Forecasting dynamics of drying out of spruce stands in the Carpathian region using the computer model FORKOME
Abstract
Today, the use of computer models in ecology allows us to predict the behavior of complex systems, which include forest ecosystems. Taking into account the specific conditions of forests, the analysis of their dynamics requires the use of simulated computer models. There are purely forest (growth-yield) models and ecological (gap) models, which developed independently over a long period and were mutually complementary. Forest models focus on the analysis of wood products and did not take into account aspects of changes in the forest environment changes. Other ecological models, which are also often called process models, take into account changes in the forest environment in prognostic imitations. The FORKOME model that is presented in the article contains elements of forest and ecological approaches and was specially developed for the conditions of Poland and Ukrainian Carpathians. This is an original computer model that allowing to predict possible changes in forests and is developed created as an information and prognostic system of broad scientific, practical and cognitive importance. Forecast of drying based on the latest version of the imitation computer model FORKOME allowed to evaluate the results of modeling regarding bioclimatic effects on the appearance, survival, growth and death of spruce and other tree species. The modeling was performed on the basis of a single simulation results and statistically averaged forecast of 20 simulations ("Monte Carlo") in order to show the tendency of changes and their correspondence with single simulations. The forecast of the woodland dynamics was conducted at the 20th and 50th anniversary period. In two cases, simulations were performed with "control" and "warm-dry" scenarios, as the most reliable for real climate change over the past two decades. In addition, simulation of tree species was also conducted in the "control" and "warm-dry" scenarios for 50 years. It has been revealed that the dynamics of the tree stand dynamics at the 20-year and 50-year periods in the control and heat-dry scenarios is similar and is characterized by a rapid decrease of biomass in the first decade as a result of fir disappearing from the planting composition at different age stages and in a smaller number of overflows fir species. It was revealed that in the control scenario with fir, spruce and beech the most active biomass growth during the 50-year forecast was shown by fir and beech. The spruce reacted relatively sensitively to the warming and decrease of rainfall, which practically disappeared on the planted area at the beginning of the forecast. The total planting biomass on the control during the 50-year forecast increases more intensively comparing to the dry and warmer weather conditions, where it is almost two times lower at the end of the forecast period. The results of the study article are confirmed by field research and literature data, which reflects the reliability of forecasts obtained using the FORKOME computer model. Such studies researches are essential for sustainable forest management and the adoption of appropriate forest development strategies.
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