Environment International (May 2024)
Temperature frequency and mortality: Assessing adaptation to local temperature
- Yao Wu,
- Bo Wen,
- Antonio Gasparrini,
- Ben Armstrong,
- Francesco Sera,
- Eric Lavigne,
- Shanshan Li,
- Yuming Guo,
- Ala Overcenco,
- Aleš Urban,
- Alexandra Schneider,
- Alireza Entezari,
- Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera,
- Antonella Zanobetti,
- Antonis Analitis,
- Ariana Zeka,
- Aurelio Tobias,
- Baltazar Nunes,
- Barrak Alahmad,
- Bertil Forsberg,
- Carmen Íñiguez,
- Caroline Ameling,
- César De la Cruz Valencia,
- Danny Houthuijs,
- Do Van Dung,
- Dominic Roye,
- Ene Indermitte,
- Fatemeh Mayvaneh,
- Fiorella Acquaotta,
- Francesca de'Donato,
- Gabriel Carrasco-Escobar,
- Haidong Kan,
- Hanne Krage Carlsen,
- Hans Orru,
- Ho Kim,
- Iulian-Horia Holobaca,
- Jan Kyselý,
- Joana Madureira,
- Joel Schwartz,
- Jouni J.K. Jaakkola,
- Klea Katsouyanni,
- Magali Hurtado Diaz,
- Martina S. Ragettli,
- Masahiro Hashizume,
- Mathilde Pascal,
- Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho,
- Nicolás Valdés Ortega,
- Niilo Ryti,
- Noah Scovronick,
- Paola Michelozzi,
- Patricia Matus Correa,
- Patrick Goodman,
- Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva,
- Raanan Raz,
- Rosana Abrutzky,
- Samuel Osorio,
- Shih-Chun Pan,
- Shilpa Rao,
- Shilu Tong,
- Souzana Achilleos,
- Tran Ngoc Dang,
- Valentina Colistro,
- Veronika Huber,
- Whanhee Lee,
- Xerxes Seposo,
- Yasushi Honda,
- Yoonhee Kim,
- Yue Leon Guo,
- Shanshan Li,
- Yuming Guo
Affiliations
- Yao Wu
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
- Bo Wen
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
- Antonio Gasparrini
- Department of Public Health Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom; Centre for Statistical Methodology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom; Centre On Climate Change & Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
- Ben Armstrong
- Department of Public Health Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
- Francesco Sera
- Department of Statistics, Computer Science and Applications “G. Parenti”, University of Florence, Florence, Italy
- Eric Lavigne
- School of Epidemiology & Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Canada
- Shanshan Li
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia; Corresponding authors at: School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University. Level 2, 553 St Kilda Road, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia.
- Yuming Guo
- Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia; Corresponding authors at: School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University. Level 2, 553 St Kilda Road, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia.
- Ala Overcenco
- National Agency for Public Health of the Ministry of Health, Labour and Social Protection of the Republic of Moldova, Republic of Moldova
- Aleš Urban
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague 141 00, Czech Republic; Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
- Alexandra Schneider
- Institute of Epidemiology, Helmholtz Zentrum München – German Research Center for Environmental Health (GmbH), Neuherberg, Germany
- Alireza Entezari
- Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar 9617916487, Khorasan Razavi, Iran
- Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera
- Institute of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Oeschger Center for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Department of Public Health Environments and Society, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
- Antonella Zanobetti
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
- Antonis Analitis
- Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Greece
- Ariana Zeka
- Institute for the Environment, Brunel University London, London, United Kingdom
- Aurelio Tobias
- Institute of Environmental Assessment and Water Research (IDAEA), Spanish Council for Scientific Research (CSIC), Barcelona, Spain; School of Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, Japan
- Baltazar Nunes
- Department of Epidemiology, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr Ricardo Jorge, Portugal; Centro de Investigação em Saúde Pública, Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública, Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Lisboa, Portugal
- Barrak Alahmad
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
- Bertil Forsberg
- Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Umeå University, Sweden
- Carmen Íñiguez
- Department of Statistics and Computational Research. Universitat de València, València, Spain; Ciberesp, Madrid. Spain
- Caroline Ameling
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Centre for Sustainability and Environmental Health, Bilthoven, Netherlands
- César De la Cruz Valencia
- Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico
- Danny Houthuijs
- National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Centre for Sustainability and Environmental Health, Bilthoven, Netherlands
- Do Van Dung
- Department of Environmetal Health, Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet-Nam
- Dominic Roye
- Department of Geography, University of Santiago de Compostela, Santiago de Compostela, Spain; Ciberesp, Madrid. Spain
- Ene Indermitte
- Department of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
- Fatemeh Mayvaneh
- Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar 9617916487, Khorasan Razavi, Iran
- Fiorella Acquaotta
- Department of Earth Sciences, University of Torino, Italy
- Francesca de'Donato
- Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome, Italy
- Gabriel Carrasco-Escobar
- Health Innovation Laboratory, Institute of Tropical Medicine “Alexander Von Humboldt”, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru; Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA
- Haidong Kan
- Department of Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
- Hanne Krage Carlsen
- School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, Sweden
- Hans Orru
- Department of Family Medicine and Public Health, University of Tartu, Tartu, Estonia
- Ho Kim
- Graduate School of Public Health, Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
- Iulian-Horia Holobaca
- Faculty of Geography, Babes-Bolay University, Cluj-Napoca, Romania
- Jan Kyselý
- Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Czech Academy of Sciences, Prague 141 00, Czech Republic; Faculty of Environmental Sciences, Czech University of Life Sciences, Prague, Czech Republic
- Joana Madureira
- EPIUnit - Instituto de Saude Publica, Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal; Laboratório Para a Investigação Integrativa e Translacional em Saúde Populacional (ITR), Porto, Portugal; Environmental Health Department, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr. Ricardo Jorge, 4000-055 Porto, Portugal
- Joel Schwartz
- Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA
- Jouni J.K. Jaakkola
- Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland; Medical Research Center Oulu (MRC Oulu), Oulu University Hospital and University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
- Klea Katsouyanni
- Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Greece; School of Population Health and Environmental Sciences, King's College, London, United Kingdom
- Magali Hurtado Diaz
- Department of Environmental Health, National Institute of Public Health, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico
- Martina S. Ragettli
- Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
- Masahiro Hashizume
- Department of Global Health Policy, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
- Mathilde Pascal
- Santé Publique France, Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, French National Public Health Agency, Saint Maurice 94 410, France
- Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho
- Department of Pathology, Faculty of Medicine, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
- Nicolás Valdés Ortega
- Department of Public Health, Universidad de Los Andes, Santiago, Chile
- Niilo Ryti
- Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research (CERH), University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland; Medical Research Center Oulu (MRC Oulu), Oulu University Hospital and University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland
- Noah Scovronick
- Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health. Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, USA
- Paola Michelozzi
- Department of Epidemiology, Lazio Regional Health Service, Rome, Italy
- Patricia Matus Correa
- Department of Public Health, Universidad de Los Andes, Santiago, Chile
- Patrick Goodman
- Technological University Dublin, Ireland
- Paulo Hilario Nascimento Saldiva
- INSPER, São Paulo, Brazil
- Raanan Raz
- Braun School of Public Health and Community Medicine, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel
- Rosana Abrutzky
- Universidad de Buenos Aires, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, Instituto de Investigaciones Gino Germani, Argentina
- Samuel Osorio
- Department of Environmental Health, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
- Shih-Chun Pan
- National Institute of Environmental Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan
- Shilpa Rao
- Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway
- Shilu Tong
- School of Public Health and Social Work, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia; School of Public Health and Institute of Environment and Human Health, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China; Shanghai Children’s Medical Centre, Shanghai Jiao-Tong University, Shanghai, China
- Souzana Achilleos
- Department of Primary Care and Population Health, University of Nicosia Medical School, Nicosia, Cyprus
- Tran Ngoc Dang
- Department of Environmetal Health, Faculty of Public Health, University of Medicine and Pharmacy at Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet-Nam
- Valentina Colistro
- Department of Quantitative Methods, School of Medicine, University of the Republic, Montevideo, Uruguay
- Veronika Huber
- IBE-Chair of Epidemiology, LMU Munich, Munich, Germany; Department of Physical, Chemical and Natural Systems, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Sevilla, Spain
- Whanhee Lee
- School of the Environment, Yale University, New Haven CT, USA; Department of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, School of Medicine, Ewha Womans University, Seoul, South Korea
- Xerxes Seposo
- Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Greece
- Yasushi Honda
- Center for Climate Change Adaptation, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan
- Yoonhee Kim
- Department of Global Environmental Health, Graduate School of Medicine, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
- Yue Leon Guo
- Environmental and Occupational Medicine, National Taiwan University (NTU) College of Medicine and NTU Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan; National Institute of Environmental Health Science, National Health Research Institutes, Zhunan, Taiwan; Graduate Institute of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, NTU College of Public Health, Taipei, Taiwan
- Shanshan Li
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia; Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
- Yuming Guo
- Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia; Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia
- Journal volume & issue
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Vol. 187
p. 108691
Abstract
Assessing the association between temperature frequency and mortality can provide insights into human adaptation to local ambient temperatures. We collected daily time-series data on mortality and temperature from 757 locations in 47 countries/regions during 1979–2020. We used a two-stage time series design to assess the association between temperature frequency and all-cause mortality. The results were pooled at the national, regional, and global levels. We observed a consistent decrease in the risk of mortality as the normalized frequency of temperature increases across the globe. The average increase in mortality risk comparing the 10th to 100th percentile of normalized frequency was 13.03% (95% CI: 12.17–13.91), with substantial regional differences (from 4.56% in Australia and New Zealand to 33.06% in South Europe). The highest increase in mortality was observed for high-income countries (13.58%, 95% CI: 12.56–14.61), followed by lower-middle-income countries (12.34%, 95% CI: 9.27–15.51). This study observed a declining risk of mortality associated with higher temperature frequency. Our findings suggest that populations can adapt to their local climate with frequent exposure, with the adapting ability varying geographically due to differences in climatic and socioeconomic characteristics.
