Modelling the Price of Unleaded Petrol in Australia’s Capital Cities

Abstract

This paper examines the long-run and short-run determinants of unleaded petrol price in Australia’s capitalcities using monthly data to find out whether prices respond asymmetrically to external shocks. Based on thecointegration test results and the estimated asymmetric short-run dynamic models, it is found that: (1) in thelong-run petrol prices are mainly determined by Tapis crude oil and Singapore petrol prices; (2) there issome evidence of asymmetric price adjustments in the short-run since petrol price increases have been mostlypassed on to the consumer faster than price decreases in four capital cities. More specifically, this paperprovides convincing evidence in support of asymmetric price adjustments and the “rockets-and-feathershypothesis” in Adelaide, Brisbane, Melbourne and Sydney. One can thus argue that there are a significantdegree of market inefficiency and/or collusion, requiring a closer government price monitoring and scrutiny.

Keywords

• Unleaded petrol prices
• Australia
• Asymmetric ECM models