Solar power forecasting beneath diverse weather conditions using GD and LM-artificial neural networks

Abstract

Abstract Large-scale solar energy production is still a great deal of obstruction due to the unpredictability of solar power. The intermittent, chaotic, and random quality of solar energy supply has to be dealt with by some comprehensive solar forecasting technologies. Despite forecasting for the long-term, it becomes much more essential to predict short-term forecasts in minutes or even seconds prior. Because key factors such as sudden movement of the clouds, instantaneous deviation of temperature in ambiance, the increased proportion of relative humidity and uncertainty in the wind velocities, haziness, and rains cause the undesired up and down ramping rates, thereby affecting the solar power generation to a greater extent. This paper aims to acknowledge the extended stellar forecasting algorithm using artificial neural network common sensical aspect. Three layered systems have been suggested, consisting of an input layer, hidden layer, and output layer feed-forward in conjunction with back propagation. A prior 5-min te output forecast fed to the input layer to reduce the error has been introduced to have a more precise forecast. Weather remains the most vital input for the ANN type of modeling. The forecasting errors might enhance considerably, thereby affecting the solar power supply relatively due to the variations in the solar irradiations and temperature on any forecasting day. Prior approximation of stellar radiations exhibits a small amount of qualm depending upon climatic conditions such as temperature, shading conditions, soiling effects, relative humidity, etc. All these environmental factors incorporate uncertainty regarding the prediction of the output parameter. In such a case, the approximation of PV output could be much more suitable than direct solar radiation. This paper uses Gradient Descent (GD) and Levenberg Maquarndt Artificial Neural Network (LM-ANN) techniques to apply to data obtained and recorded milliseconds from a 100 W solar panel. The essential purpose of this paper is to establish a time perspective with the greatest deal for the output forecast of small solar power utilities. It has been observed that 5 ms to 12 h time perspective gives the best short- to medium-term prediction for April. A case study has been done in the Peer Panjal region. The data collected for four months with various parameters have been applied randomly as input data using GD and LM type of artificial neural network compared to actual solar energy data. The proposed ANN based algorithm has been used for unswerving petite term forecasting. The model output has been presented in root mean square error and mean absolute percentage error. The results exhibit a improved concurrence between the forecasted and real models. The forecasting of solar energy and load variations assists in fulfilling the cost-effective aspects.