Application of Uncertain AHP Method in Analyzing Travel Time Belief Reliability in Transportation Network

Abstract

Because predictions of transportation system reliability can provide useful information for intelligent transportation systems (ITS), evaluation of them might be viewed as a beneficial activity for reducing traffic congestion. This evaluation procedure could include some alternatives and criteria in a discrete decision space. To handle this evaluation process in an uncertain environment, a novel uncertain multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) method is put forward in this paper. Considering the validity of uncertainty theory as a measure of epistemic uncertainty, we first introduce it into analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and provide the whole calculation procedure of the approach. The proposed approach is employed to evaluate regional travel time belief reliability in a case study. Additionally, a comparison is performed between the results of uncertain AHP and other MCDM methods to examine the efficiency of this method. These analyses show that uncertainty theory is particularly suited to be employed combination with the AHP method.

Keywords

• uncertainty quantification model
• analytic hierarchy process
• uncertain random system
• travel time belief reliability