Assessing risk-prone areas in the Kratovska Reka catchment (North Macedonia) by integrating advanced geospatial analytics and flash flood potential index

Aleksova Bojana; Milevski Ivica; Mijalov Risto; Marković Slobodan B.; Cvetković Vladimir M.; Lukić Tin

doi:10.1515/geo-2022-0684

Open Geosciences (Aug 2024)

Assessing risk-prone areas in the Kratovska Reka catchment (North Macedonia) by integrating advanced geospatial analytics and flash flood potential index

Aleksova Bojana,
Milevski Ivica,
Mijalov Risto,
Marković Slobodan B.,
Cvetković Vladimir M.,
Lukić Tin

Affiliations

Aleksova Bojana: Maarif International School – Skopje Campus, Kiro Gligorov 5, 1000, Skopje, North Macedonia
Milevski Ivica: Institute of Geography, Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, Ss. Cyril and Methodius University, Arhimedova 3, 1000, Skopje, North Macedonia
Mijalov Risto: Institute of Geography, Faculty of Natural Sciences and Mathematics, Ss. Cyril and Methodius University, Arhimedova 3, 1000, Skopje, North Macedonia
Marković Slobodan B.: Department of Geography, Tourism and Hotel Management, Faculty of Sciences, University of Novi Sad, Trg Dositeja Obradovića 3, 21000, Novi Sad, Serbia
Cvetković Vladimir M.: Faculty of Security Studies, University of Belgrade, Gospodara Vucica 50, 11040, Belgrade, Serbia
Lukić Tin: Department of Geography, Tourism and Hotel Management, Faculty of Sciences, University of Novi Sad, Trg Dositeja Obradovića 3, 21000, Novi Sad, Serbia

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/geo-2022-0684
Journal volume & issue: Vol. 16, no. 1
pp. 1671 – 64

Abstract

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This study presents a comprehensive analysis of flash flood susceptibility in the Kratovska Reka catchment area of Northeastern North Macedonia, integrating Geographic Information System, remote sensing, and field survey data. Key factors influencing flash flood dynamics, including Slope, Lithology, Land use, and Vegetation index, were investigated to develop the Flash Flood Potential Index (FFPI). Mapping slope variation using a 5-m Digital Elevation Model (DEM) revealed higher slopes in eastern tributaries compared to western counterparts. Lithological units were classified based on susceptibility to erosion processes, with clastic sediments identified as most prone to flash floods. Land use analysis highlighted non-irrigated agricultural surfaces and areas with sparse vegetation as highly susceptible. Integration of these factors into the FFPI model provided insights into flash flood susceptibility, with results indicating a medium risk across the catchment. The average value of the FFPI is 1.9, considering that the values range from 1 to 5. Also, terrains susceptible to flash floods were found to be 49.34%, classified as medium risk. Field survey data validated the model, revealing a significant overlap between hotspot areas for flash floods and high-risk regions identified by the FFPI. An average FFPI coefficient was calculated for each tributary (sub-catchment) of the Kratovska Reka. According to the model, Latišnica had the highest average coefficient of susceptibility to potential flash floods, with a value of 2.16. These findings offer valuable insights for spatial planning and flood risk management, with implications for both local and national-scale applications. Future research directions include incorporating machine learning techniques to enhance modeling accuracy and reduce subjectivity in assigning weighting factors.

Published in Open Geosciences

ISSN: 2391-5447 (Online)
Publisher: De Gruyter
Country of publisher: Poland
LCC subjects: Science: Geology
Website: http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/geo

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