Contemporary and Future Secondary Copper Reserves of Vietnam

Abstract

As ASEAN countries, including Vietnam, approach the living standards of developed countries, their copper demand is set to rise. This study investigates Vietnam’s copper stock and flow from 1995 to 2050, employing dynamic material flow analysis and five socioeconomic pathway scenarios (SSPs). Based on this, the secondary copper reserves of Vietnam were assessed. The results showed that the domestic copper demand is expected to grow to 526–1062 kt, resulting in a rapid increase in scrap generation. In 2022, Vietnam’s secondary copper reserves stood at 2.2 Mt and are projected to reach 6.8–8.6 Mt by 2050 under the SSP2 scenario. This corresponds to 3.6–4.6 times the 1.8 Mt primary copper reserve of Vietnam. However, these primary and secondary reserves cannot meet the cumulated demand by 2050. On the other hand, a large amount of copper, 8.9 Mt to 10 Mt, will become difficult-to-recover resources, such as waste in landfill sites, dissipated materials, or mixed metal loss. To promote the sustainable use of copper in Vietnam, we recommend increased geological expedition and mining investment, and improved waste management systems related to secondary resources.

Keywords

• dynamic material flow analysis
• in-use stock
• metal scrap
• secondary resource classification
• Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)