Modeling Driver’s Real-Time Confidence in Autonomous Vehicles

Abstract

Autonomous vehicle technology has developed at an unprecedented rate in recent years. An increasing number of vehicles are equipped with different levels of driving assist systems to reduce the human driver’s burden. However, because of the conservative design of its programming framework, there is still a large gap between the performance of current autonomous driving systems and experienced veteran drivers. This gap can cause drivers to distrust decisions or behaviors made by autonomous vehicles, thus affecting the effectiveness of drivers’ use of auto-driving systems. To further estimate the expected acceptance of autonomous driving systems in real human–machine co-driving situations, a characterization model of driver confidence has to be constructed. This paper conducts a survey of driver confidence in riding autonomous vehicles. Based on the analysis of results, the paper proposes a confidence quantification model called “the Virtual Confidence (VC)” by quantifying three main factors affecting driver confidence in autonomous vehicles, including (1) the intrusive movements of surrounding traffic participants, (2) the abnormal behavior of the ego vehicle, and (3) the complexity of the driving environment. The model culminates in a dynamic confidence bar with values ranging from 0 to 100 to represent the levels of confidence. The validation of the confidence model was verified by doing comparisons between the real-time output of the VC and the real-time feeling of human drivers on an autonomous vehicle simulator. The proposed VC model can potentially identify features that need improvement for auto-driving systems in unmanned tests and provide data reference.

Keywords

• driver confidence
• quantitative model
• autonomous vehicles
• human driver
• safety entropy
• collision analysis