Dog screening as a novel complementary guinea worm disease control tool to mitigate persistence in Chad: A modeling study

Abstract

A free-roaming dog population remains one of the major public health problems in many developing countries. In this study, we investigated the potential impact of owned roaming and stray dogs on the persistence and possible eradication of Guinea worm disease (GWD) in Chad. We developed and analysed a multi-host of Guinea worm; and considered dogs as the definitive hosts, and fish as the intermediate hosts. Currently, GWD cases in the human population are low; hence, we ignored the human population in this study. We derived the reproduction number and explored how it depends on different model parameters that define it. We calibrated the proposed model with data from literature and validated it with recently reported GWD monthly data for dog infection in Chad from 2019 to 2022. Results show that detection and tethering of infectious owned free-roaming dogs combined with culling of stray dogs are effective disease management strategies. Hence, attainment of certain threshold levels for these interventions could lead to disease eradication. Overall, the study revealed how different factors could be applied to effectively manage GWD transmission in the dog population. Findings from this study could be used to support decision-making in GWD control strategies.Mathematics Subject Classification (2010): 92B05, 93A30, 93C15.

Keywords

• Guinea worm
• Mathematical modeling
• Fractional derivatives
• Dogs
• Control strategies