Knowledge-Enhanced Deep Learning for Simulation of Extratropical Cyclone Wind Risk

Abstract

Boundary-layer wind associated with extratropical cyclones (ETCs) is an essential element for posing serious threats to the urban centers of eastern North America. Using a similar methodology for tropical cyclone (TC) wind risk (i.e., hurricane tracking approach), the ETC wind risk can be accordingly simulated. However, accurate and efficient assessment of the wind field inside the ETC is currently not available. To this end, a knowledge-enhanced deep learning (KEDL) is developed in this study to estimate the ETC boundary-layer winds over eastern North America. Both physics-based equations and semi-empirical formulas are integrated as part of the system loss function to regularize the neural network. More specifically, the scale-analysis-based reduced-order Navier–Stokes equations that govern the ETC wind field and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA) ERA-interim data-based two-dimensional (2D) parametric formula (with respect to radial and azimuthal coordinates) that prescribes an asymmetric ETC pressure field are respectively employed as rationalism-based and empiricism-based knowledge to enhance the deep neural network. The developed KEDL, using the standard storm parameters (i.e., spatial coordinates, central pressure difference, translational speed, approach angle, latitude of ETC center, and surface roughness) as the network inputs, can provide the three-dimensional (3D) boundary-layer wind field of an arbitrary ETC with high computational efficiency and accuracy. Finally, the KEDL-based wind model is coupled with a large ETC synthetic track database (SynthETC), where 6-hourly ETC center location and pressure deficit are included to effectively assess the wind risk along the US northeast coast in terms of annual exceedance probability.

Keywords

• knowledge-enhanced deep learning
• extratropical cyclones
• nor’easters
• boundary-layer winds
• risk analysis