Weather- and climate-driven power supply and demand time series for power and energy system analyses

Abstract

Abstract Reaching net-zero carbon emissions requires large shares of intermittent renewable energy and the electrification of end-use consumption, such as heating, making the future energy system highly dependent on weather variability and climate change. Weather exhibits fluctuations on temporal scales ranging from sub-hourly to yearly while climate variations occur on decadal scales. To investigate the intricate interplay between weather patterns, climate variations, and power systems, we developed a database of time series of wind and solar power generation, hydropower inflow, heating and cooling demand using an internally consistent modeling framework. Here we focused on the European continent and generated country level time series extending between 1940 and 2100. Our database can be used for analyses aimed at understanding and addressing the challenges posed by the evolving energy landscape in the face of deep decarbonization and climate change.