Method for calculating the supply of transport and logistics services depending on the demand for freight transportation

Abstract

The article examines the problems that arise in railway freight transportation when determining the optimal size of rolling stock fleet under seasonal fluctuations in the volume of transportation and ensuring a certain reserve of vehicles. In order to optimize the number of vehicles in the fleet, it is necessary to find a balance between undesirable expenses for maintaining wagons in periods of falling demand for them (surplus supply of transport and logistics services) and unearned income from their lack (deficit) in periods of maximum growth of transportation volumes. The methodology and example of calculating the fleet of freight wagons, the efficiency of their use and determining the optimal number of rolling stock and the need for a certain reserve of vehicles are presented. It is noted that the railway transport of Ukraine was and continues to be one of the main types of transport in the transportation of goods and passengers. However, considering the long operating time of the rolling stock, more than 70% of semi-wagons and more than 80% of grain wagons require replacement or extension of their service life due to capital repairs. The role of railways is especially critical in the current period of russia's war against Ukraine, due to the lack of air transport, river and sea transport and the insufficient capacity of highways and border railway stations. Determining the required number and optimizing the number of vehicles in the fleet can be carried out according to the calculation methodology, which is based on the analytical determination of the minimum of the objective function of the total operating costs associated with both the deficit and the surplus of vehicles compared to the demand for transport and logistics services. It has been established that the application of this calculation method allows to optimize the inventory and working fleet of wagons taking into account the different cost per day of shortage and surplus of the fleet of wagons (supply of transport services compared to their demand). Compared to traditional methods of calculation, the proposed method saves operational costs for maintaining the fleet of wagons in the amount of 2-5%.