Ain Shams Engineering Journal (Mar 2021)
Assessment of spatiotemporal patterns of social vulnerability: A tool to resilient urban development Alexandria, Egypt
Abstract
In today's world, most cities face physical threats posed by climate change. These threats create environmental hazards, along with urban problems resulting from rapid urbanization and fast growth of cities. Unplanned urbanization causes the formulation of marginalized urban communities. According to a Un-Habitat report (2014), those groups are most vulnerable and most likely to suffer from disasters. The vulnerability of such population is an alarming problem with major social, environmental, and economic consequences. This issue has received significant consideration in climate change and disaster management research. The social vulnerability of communities is attributable to multiple indicators such as high levels of poverty, inequality, and problems relating to unemployment, housing, and access to basic civic amenities like safe drinking water and sanitation. This research aims at analysing the social vulnerability of Alexandria city. It reviews and implements several methods for selecting and aggregating vulnerability indicators. This aggregation process that captures multiple aspects of socio-spatial vulnerability in a single index or a small number of variables can produce thematic maps that act as powerful visual tools to identify those areas most susceptible to suffer from environmental changes. This study follows a structured framework to firstly describe the process of developing a social vulnerability index (SoVI), from 14 variables using two different methods. Secondly, it analyses the spatial patterns of the developed composite SoVI at the neighbourhood “Shyakha” level using ArcMap geographic information systems (GIS). The results demonstrate that the distribution of social vulnerability is not equal along Alexandria city. Most of the city is categorized to have relatively medium vulnerability level, while few areas are regarded as highly vulnerable “hot spots” and other areas are regarded as low vulnerable “cold spots”. Finally, based on the interpretation of the developed index and the deep examination of the characteristics of those vulnerable areas, the study offers guidelines to promote resilient development of most vulnerable areas.
