Impact of changes in climate and CO₂ on the carbon storage potential of vegetation under limited water availability using SEIB-DGVM version 3.02

Abstract

Documenting year-to-year variations in carbon storage potential in terrestrial ecosystems is crucial for the determination of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. However, the magnitude, pattern, and inner biomass partitioning of carbon storage potential and the effect of the changes in climate and CO2 on inner carbon stocks remain poorly quantified. Herein, we use a spatially explicit individual-based dynamic global vegetation model to investigate the influences of the changes in climate and CO2 on the enhanced carbon storage potential of vegetation. The modelling included a series of factorial simulations using the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) dataset from 1916 to 2015. The results show that CO2 predominantly leads to a persistent and widespread increase in light-gathering vegetation biomass carbon stocks (LVBC) and water-gathering vegetation biomass carbon stocks (WVBC). Climate change appears to play a secondary role in carbon storage potential. Importantly, with the intensification of water stress, the magnitude of the light- and water-gathering responses in vegetation carbon stocks gradually decreases. Plants adjust carbon allocation to decrease the ratio between LVBC and WVBC for capturing more water. Changes in the pattern of vegetation carbon storage were linked to zonal limitations in water, which directly weaken and indirectly regulate the response of potential vegetation carbon stocks to a changing environment. Our findings differ from previous modelling evaluations of vegetation that ignored inner carbon dynamics and demonstrate that the long-term trend in increased vegetation biomass carbon stocks is driven by CO2 fertilization and temperature effects that are controlled by water limitations.