Predicting the impacts of climate change on distribution of the genus Macrovipera in Iran

Abstract

Climate change is an important growing threat to biodiversity and ecosystems. Previous studies have shown that climate change will negatively influence on Iran’s biodiversity. Reptiles are among the most vulnerable group to climate change. Until now, more than 80 snake species have been recorded in Iran in which 16 are terrestrial venomous. In the present study, we predicted the impacts of climate change on distribution of the genus Macrovipera in Iran. We applied an ensemble approach, using five distribution modeling methods (Generalized Linear Models, Generalized Additive Models, Generalized Boosted Models, Maximum Entropy Modelling and Random Forest) to predict the impacts of climate change on distribution pattern of the genus. We also estimated protected areas coverage for the suitable habitat of the genus under current and future climatic conditions. We found that the genus will lose 11% of its suitable habitat under the worst-case scenario (2071-2100SSP585). Results also showed that only around 8% of the genus suitable habitat is covered by protected areas under current and future climatic conditions. Stable suitable but not protected habitats have high priority for conservation of the genus in Iran.

Keywords

• macrovipera lebetina
• macrovipera razii
• distribution
• conservation
• iran