Linking ECMWF 2 m Temperature Forecast Errors with Upper-Level Circulation Situation: A Case-Study for China

Abstract

Using the observational data and the forecast and reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) during 2015–2018, the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of the 2 m temperature forecast errors of ECMWF in China, as well as their attribution to upper-level circulation, are analyzed. Results show that positive 2 m temperature forecast errors mainly occur in northwestern, northern and northeastern China, and gradually increase from January to December. This kind of error is attributed to the circulation errors associated with the circumfluence of the low-level differential winds along the Mongolian Plateau, and influenced by the changes in the mid-latitude trough and ridge with the seasons. In contrast, the negative 2 m temperature forecast errors mainly occur in the southeastern part of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, with the largest errors around March and October, and the smallest errors around June and December. This kind of error is associated with a series of cyclonic and anticyclonic differential circulations generated by the detouring of the mid-level differential winds along the terrain near the south side of the Plateau. The positions and intensity of these differential circulations are also influenced by the variation in the mid-level circulation with the seasons.

Keywords

• ECMWF
• 2 m temperature forecast error
• upper-level circulation situation
• attribution analysis