Status Forecasting Based on the Baseline Information Using Logistic Regression

Abstract

In the status forecasting problem, classification models such as logistic regression with input variables such as physiological, diagnostic, and treatment variables are typical ways of modeling. However, the parameter value and model performance differ among individuals with different baseline information. To cope with these difficulties, a subgroup analysis is conducted, in which models’ ANOVA and rpart are proposed to explore the influence of baseline information on the parameters and model performance. The results show that the logistic regression model achieves satisfactory performance, which is generally higher than 0.95 in AUC and around 0.9 in F1 and balanced accuracy. The subgroup analysis presents the prior parameter values for monitoring variables including SpO2, milrinone, non-opioid analgesics and dobutamine. The proposed method can be used to explore variables that are and are not medically related to the baseline variables.

Keywords

• status forecasting
• subgroup analysis
• baseline information
• logistic regression