Performance of conceptual and black-box models in flood warning systems

Abstract

Flood forecasting is a core of flood forecasting and flood warning system which can be implemented by both conceptual rainfall–runoff (CRR) model and black-box rainfall–runoff (BBRR) model. Dynamic artificial neural network (DANN) as an innovative BBRR model and HEC-HMS as a traditional CRR model were used for flood forecasting. The aim of this paper is to compare the efficiency of HEC-HMS and DANN for the determination of flood warning lead-time (FWLT) in a steep urbanized watershed. A framework is proposed to compare the performance of the models based on four criteria: type and quantity of required input data by each model, flood simulation performance, FWLT and expected lead-time (ELT). Finally, the results show that FWLT and ELT were estimated longer by DANN than by HEC-HMS model. In brief, because of less required data by BBRR model and its longer ELT, future research should be focused on better verification of it.

Keywords

• flash floods
• ann
• hec-hms
• flood forecasting
• flood warning system
• lead-time
• black-box
• conceptual rainfall–runoff