Parametric Software Effort Estimation Based on Optimizing Correction Factors and Multiple Linear Regression

Abstract

Context: Effort estimation is one of the essential phases that must be accurately predicted in the early stage of software project development. Currently, solving problems that affect the estimation accuracy of Use Case Points-based methods is still a challenge to be addressed. Objective: This paper proposes a parametric software effort estimation model based on Optimizing Correction Factors and Multiple Regression Models to minimize the estimation error and the influence of unsystematic noise, which has not been considered in previous studies. The proposed method takes advantage of the Least Squared Regression models and Multiple Linear Regression models on the Use Case Points-based elements. Method: We have conducted experimental research to evaluate the estimation accuracy of the proposed method and compare it with three previous related methods, i.e., 1) the baseline estimation method – Use Case Points, 2) Optimizing Correction Factors, and 3) Algorithmic Optimization Method. Experiments were performed on datasets (Dataset D1, Dataset D2, and Dataset D3). The estimation accuracy of the methods was analysed by applying various unbiased evaluation criteria and statistical tests. Results: The results proved that the proposed method outperformed the other methods in improving estimation accuracy. Statistically, the results proved to be significantly superior to the three compared methods based on all tested datasets. Conclusion: Based on our obtained results, the proposed method has a high estimation capability and is considered a helpful method for project managers during the estimation phase. The correction factors are considered in the estimation process.

Keywords

• Algorithmic optimization
• multiple linear regression
• optimizing correction factors
• software development effort estimation
• use case points