Spatiotemporal analysis of tropical vegetation ecosystems and their responses to multifaceted droughts in Mainland Southeast Asia using satellite-based time series

Abstract

Drought ranks among the costliest of all climate-related phenomena and manifests in various forms, posing significant challenges in understanding its influence on agriculture and natural ecosystems. Mainland Southeast Asia (MSEA), a significant region of tropical agriculture and vegetation ecosystems, has become increasingly susceptible to drought hazards. In this study, we characterized and assessed vegetation dynamics and their drought impacts using correlation analysis and explainable machine learning methods under different vegetation types and elevation zones during the dry growing seasons from 2000 to 2022. Specifically, we characterized the vegetation dynamics and their trend in space and time. Next, we assessed vegetation-drought responses in consideration of meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural droughts under different land cover types and elevation characteristics. Lastly, we used an explainable machine learning method to quantify the drivers and impacts of multifaceted droughts on natural and undisturbed vegetation ecosystems. Our findings revealed that nearly 70% of the MSEA region experienced a greening trend despite large areas of vegetative damage during the drought years. Vietnam witnessed increasing vegetation condition in most observed years while the declining trend was mainly found in Cambodia and southern Laos. Vegetation-drought responses showed that tropical vegetation had a high sensitivity to drought conditions, and stronger responses were observed in rainfed crop, mixed forest, and deciduous forest at lower altitude areas. In natural and undisturbed ecosystems, short-term meteorological and agricultural drought disturbances accounted for nearly 93% of variations in tropical vegetation. Among the different examined drought indices, the 3-month Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration (SPEI-3) and Temperature Condition Index (TCI) were identified as the factors having the largest influence, together explaining about 55% of the observed natural undisturbed vegetation variations. These findings deepen our understanding of tropical vegetation-drought responses and the underlying drivers of natural and undisturbed ecosystems. Such insights could provide valuable information to assist national and local governments in the MSEA region in developing effective drought management and adaptation programs to safeguard tropical agricultural production and natural ecosystems amidst growing climate challenges.

Keywords

• Undisturbed ecosystems
• drivers
• remote sensing
• earth observation, SHAP
• random forest