Re-examination of the impact of some non-pharmaceutical interventions and media coverage on the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan

Abstract

In this paper, based on the classic Kermack-McKendrick SIR model, we propose an ordinary differential equation model to re-examine the COVID-19 epidemics in Wuhan where this disease initially broke out. The focus is on the impact of all those major non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) implemented by the local public healthy authorities and government during the epidemics. We use the data publicly available and the nonlinear least-squares solver lsqnonlin built in MATLAB to estimate the model parameters. Then we explore the impact of those NPIs, particularly the timings of these interventions, on the epidemics. The results can help people review the responses to the outbreak of the COVID-19 in Wuhan, while the proposed model also offers a framework for studying epidemics of COVID-19 and/or other similar diseases in other places, and accordingly helping people better prepare for possible future outbreaks of similar diseases.

Keywords

• COVID-19
• SARS-CoV-2
• Kermack-McKendrick SIR model
• Non-pharmaceutical intervention