Climate Change Assessment in the basin of Hamoon International Wetlands Using LARS-WG6 Model

Abstract

The aim of this study is to evaluate the status of climatic variables in the basin of Hamoun International Wetlands using different general circulation models of LARS-WG6 downscaling method, under emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 during 2040-2021, 2060-2041 and 2080-2061 based on observed parameters in Zabol Synoptic gauge in 2019-1983. Accuracy analyzing indicated a high correlation between simulated and observed data. The results of downscaling showed that the mean minimum and maximum temperatures will increase in all months under two scenarios in all models during 2021-2080. The upward trend will be more severe in the period 2061-2080 compared to previous periods. The maximum and minimum increase in the mean minimum and maximum monthly temperatures are predicted in HadGEM2-EC model, RCP8.5 scenarios and MPI-ESM-MR model, RCP4.5 scenarios, respectively. During 2080-2021, the range of monthly maximum temperature changes in RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios will be 0.29-2.85 and 0.54-5.80 degrees Celsius, respectively, and the range of monthly minimum temperature changes will be 0.18 -5.51 and 0.61-5.38 degree Celsius respectively. The average monthly rainfall is projected to fluctuate in different models and scenarios. The average monthly precipitation changes under different models and scenarios will be between -3.68-6.6 mm. The highest increase in the average monthly rainfall will happen in March based on HadGEM2-EC model in the RCP4.5 scenarios by 8.6 mm in 2060-2041. The highest decrease in the average monthly rainfall is predicted in January by the MIROC5 model in the RCP4.5 scenarios by 3.68 mm in 2080-2061.The results of this study can be useful for natural resources managers in setting up climate-adoptive livelihood strategies and agricultural practices.

Keywords

• climate change
• hamoun international wetlands
• lars-wg6