Risk assessment of multireservoir joint flood control system under multiple uncertainties

Abstract

Abstract Multireservoir joint flood control operation is an important nonstructural measure for flood control in some basins. Owing to the existence of uncertainties in flood control operation, various degrees of risk can be shown in flood control operation systems. Examining these uncertainties and the resulting risk of failure in multireservoir operation systems is extremely beneficial and indispensable for basin flood mitigation. In this study, different stochastic simulation methods were employed to generate streamflow series at multiple stations and other uncertainties such as the flood forecast errors, discharge capacity, and reservoir storage. Then, the Monte Carlo framework was established based on the simulation sequence to estimate the risk of a failure of each flood control unit in the flood control system. Furthermore, a comprehensive risk assessment indicator was proposed to consider the failure probability and failure consequences at the same time. The Xiluodu‐Xiangjiaba‐Three Gorges cascade reservoirs were selected as a case study. Results show that the applied probabilistic simulation methods could simulate various uncertainties in a multireservoir flood control system effectively, and the proposed risk analysis method could comprehensively evaluate the risks of reservoir overtopping, flood flows exceeding a standard, and flood diversion from the perspective of overall watershed security.

Keywords

• multiple uncertainties
• multireservoir joint flood control operation
• risk analysis
• stochastic simulation