Prediction of Blood Glucose Level Using Nonlinear System Identification Approach

Abstract

Predicting the blood glucose level of type 1 diabetes mellitus of patients could prevent hypo/hyperglycemia incidents that are threats for the patients with this disease. A nonlinear system identification approach is proposed in this work to develop a mathematical model, which can be used to predict the blood glucose level over a given period with high accuracy. More specifically, the Hammerstein Box-Jenkins model is used to approximate the system, where two infinite impulse response filters represent the linear and noise processes, and a polynomial basis function represents the nonlinearity. The proposed identification method is based on the Steiglitz-McBride approach to predict the model parameters. Moreover, a simulation software licensed by the USA Food and Drug Administration that simulates the dynamics of the glucose-insulin system metabolism inside the body, called Type I Diabetes Metabolic Simulator (T1DMS), was used to generate the data. Thirty subjects of different age groups were considered, and the data was generated for a week with a sample per minute, i.e. 302430 data points. This data was then processed using a developed MATLAB code to predict the blood glucose level. Various scenarios were established to validate the proposed approach. The simulations showed very promising results with a very low average root mean square error of 1 mg/dl, which is seven times less compared to other prediction techniques. Other cost functions have also been used and they showed very good results. In the future, this approach can be embedded in closed-loop continuous blood glucose monitoring systems in order to give alerts to the patients and help in calculating the needed insulin dose.

Keywords

• Blood glucose level
• Box-Jenkins model
• Hammerstein model
• nonlinear system identification
• Steiglitz-McBride approach
• T1DMS simulator software