Baltic Journal of Economic Studies (Sep 2024)
FORECASTING THE INNOVATIVE AND DIGITAL STRENGTH OF UKRAINE’S ECONOMY ON THE BASIS OF CORRELATION-REGRESS ANALYSIS
Abstract
The purpose of the research is to present the realised forecasts of Ukraine's economic power in order to find reserves for the recovery of the national economy and opportunities for the formation of digital entrepreneurship on the basis of innovative functioning, which will lead to economic growth in the medium and long term. The object of scientific research is the expenditure on SRD and S&T development by types of work in Ukraine from 2010 to 2022 and the analysis of indicators of GDP the influence of time, employment and inflation factors; expansion of digital capabilities of entrepreneurship due to the conducted R&D, which will become a guarantee of the emergence of breakthrough innovations as one of the key reserves of innovative and digital development of the country during the war and post-war reconstruction of Ukraine. Methodology. A study was conducted utilising dialectical, systematic, mathematical and statistical methods to investigate the R&D expenses by types of work in Ukraine from 2010 to 2022 and the GDP from 2011 to 2023. This analysis determined the prospective existing reserve of economic strength with positive dynamics and highlighted the necessity for a strategic format of digital business work based on innovation. A CRA was conducted to determine the strength of the relationship between SRD expenditures and time (i.e., a set of factors that consistently influence SRD funding and drive its growth trend). Fisher's test was calculated, and an econometric analysis was performed based on GDP indicators over 56 quarters, establishing the dependence of the GDP volume on the time factor and the cyclicality of seasonal fluctuations. Resluts. The conditions for accelerating the digitisation of business processes at domestic enterprises are, in particular, the presence of highly qualified S&R personnel, innovators and researchers in the country, the development of new institutes of innovative and digital development, and the transformation and adaptation of old institutes of development to the existing conditions. The obtained data of CRA show that there is a close relationship between the GDP of Ukraine and the time factor, and the direction of the relationship is direct, i.e., linear, which in this case is a positive fact. It is determined that in pursuit of the goal of restoring the innovative potential of the national economy in the post-war period and further active development of digital entrepreneurship in Ukraine, it is necessary to continue financial support for scientific research and scientific and technical developments carried out in various sectors of the economy. Practical implications. The analysed statistical data had a positive impact on the professionalism of the forecast calculations and allowed to state that in 2027, with a probability of error of 6.29%, the volume of expenditures on research and development is projected to range from 20,202.74 to 29,201.18 million UAH. The results of the CRA show that the multiple correlation coefficient (R) is 0.94, which indicates a close overall relationship between the country's GDP and three independent variables (inflation rate, unemployment rate, time factor). The linear regression equation fits the sample data well and the model is qualitative. The results of the forecast are as follows: Ukraine has the potential for post-war recovery and can develop models for post-war economic reconstruction and changes in its structure. Government officials can develop institutional instruments to attract investment and provide effective mechanisms for the future transformation of the existing labour market and human capital institution. Value / Originality. Having conducted a thorough analysis of the statistical data on the dynamics of spending on S&T development and implementation of the SRD in Ukraine in 2010-2022, the authors managed to determine the relative error of approximation – a criterion for assessing the reliability of the forecast, which amounted to 8.74% and considered the approximation to be qualitative, and the forecast for 2027 is reliable. It is determined that the regression equation is most accurate when R2 approaches its maximum value, that is, 1, and in this case, it is 0.9096, which is a good result and means that the linear regression equation fits the sample data well and the model is of high quality. And for Ukraine's economy, which is under martial law, such positive expectations for GDP and the possibility of increasing R&D spending give hope that Ukraine's economic strength is real, as confirmed by the forecast calculations.
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