Coupling Land Use Change Modeling with Climate Projections to Estimate Seasonal Variability in Runoff from an Urbanizing Catchment Near Cincinnati, Ohio

Abstract

This research examines the impact of climate and land use change on watershed hydrology. Seasonal variability in mean streamflow discharge, 100-year flood, and 7Q10 low-flow of the East Fork Little Miami River watershed, Ohio was analyzed using simulated land cover change and climate projections for 2030. Future urban growth in the Greater Cincinnati area, Ohio, by the year 2030 was projected using cellular automata. Projected land cover was incorporated into a calibrated BASINS-HSPF model. Downscaled climate projections of seven GCMs based on the assumptions of two IPCC greenhouse gas emissions scenarios were integrated through the BASINS Climate Assessment Tool (CAT). The discrete CAT output was used to specify a seed for a Monte Carlo simulation and derive probability density functions of anticipated seasonal hydrologic responses to account for uncertainty. Sensitivity analysis was conducted for a small catchment in the watershed using the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) developed U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The results indicated higher probability of exceeding the 100-year flood over the fall and winter months, and a likelihood of decreasing summer low flows.

Keywords

• climate change
• land cover change
• cellular automata
• BASINS-HSPF
• 100-year flood
• 7Q10 low flow