A statistical approach to the water scarcity implications on food security

Abstract

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Jordan faces significant food security challenges due to population growth, climate change, and urbanization, straining limited water resources. Water supply expansion is constrained by economic and environmental factors, leading to a critical impact on agriculture, which stands as the largest consumer of water. The study emphasizes the crucial importance of regional water sources in ensuring food security, as the quantity and quality of irrigation water have a direct influence on crop yield and productivity. Managing irrigation is crucial for sustainability and livelihoods, given Jordan's reliance on food imports and climate change-induced production variability. This study delves into potato cultivation, examining the interconnections among irrigation water availability, crop yield, and self-relianceMETHODS: Irrigation with freshwater and blended treated wastewater in the middle and northern Jordan Valley is compared, using stepwise regression analysis and assuming other agricultural inputs to be optimal. Food security indicators, which include agricultural and socio-economic factors, along with water scarcity indicators, encompassing both water quantity and quality, were methodically chosen and examined.FINDINGS: Regression analysis of potato production in Jordan revealed that increased blended water positively impacts yields, while higher water requirements and chloride levels negatively affect them. The negative implications of effective rainfall in combined water irrigation were evident, emphasizing the necessity for precise control over the levels of water quality and quantity. The study found that higher local potato production enhances self-sufficiency, crucial for food security. Enhanced water management techniques and advancements in agricultural practices have led to an increase in potato self-sufficiency, even in the face of dwindling water resources. Challenges from stable water requirements and decreasing rainfall can be addressed with advanced irrigation techniques and adaptive practices.CONCLUSION: Improved water and crop management contribute to enhanced potato self-sufficiency in Jordan, despite varying water quality parameters. Furthermore, the results of research offer important information regarding the adjustment of potato cultivation to evolving climate patterns, including changes in precipitation temperature. These adaptation strategies can be shared and implemented in other countries facing similar climatic challenges.

Keywords

• blended water
• crop water requirements
• freshwater
• regression model
• self-sufficiency