DETEKSI FAKTOR PENYEBAB INFLASI DI PURWOKERTO

Abstract

Generally inflation constitute more a problem than a solution because its impact to all economic conditions. Inflation phenomena in Purwokerto is necessary to research. Inflation In this region is more unstable than other cities. December 2008, even other cities had defla­tion situation, positive inflation occurred in Purwokerto. Inflation modeling by Vector Auto­regressive Model (VAR), it is find out money supply (M1), consumption interest rate, de­posit interest rate, Rupiah/US dollar exchange rate, consumers trust index, and oil price have significant impact to inflation rate. Best model is produced by 1st to 6th lag auto regression factors. It means relatively the current inflation was effected by 1st – 6th months before. Other result, money supply with proxy by cash flow from banking sector to rill sector has positive impact to inflation. Interest rates, by means consumption interest rate and deposit interest rate, have negative impact. Total credit from Banyumas banking has negative effect. Increas­ing of Rupiah currency to US dollar has positive impact. While consumers trust of Pur­wokerto resident has negative impact to inflation. Last, price oil increasing has positive infla­tion effect directly.

Keywords

• inflation, vector autoregressive model, total kredit perbankan, inflation modeling