The effects of rainfall fluctuations on declining Zagros Forests in Ilam and Lorestan provinces

Abstract

The aim of this study was to analyze the annual, monthly, and seasonal rainfall changes over a thirty-year period as well as before and after the emergence of declining oak. (Quercus brantii var. persica) trees (2000) in Ilam and Lorestan provinces. For this purpose, the authors used long-term data of daily rainfall in 1987–2017 period recorded by four synoptic meteorological stations; Ilam, Dehloran, Khoramabad, and Aligudarz. The Mann-Kendall non-parametric test was used to determine the rainfall trends. The decreasing trends of annual rainfall as well as mean differences in annual precipitation before and after emerging oak decline were not statistically significant at all meteorological stations. The average rainfall of four stations was 502 mm in the first decade (1987-1997), while it decreased to 422 and 371 mm in the second (1998-2007) and third decades (2008- 2017), respectively. The difference in the amount of annual rainfall before and after the emerging oak decline (442 against 401 mm) did not alter the mean rainfall event (̴7 mm). Although the thirty-year trends of seasonal rainfall were not significant, winter rainfall was decreased after emerging oak decline by 11% and spring, autumn, and summer rainfalls were increased by 5, 4, and 2%, respectively. Rainfall fluctuations in the Zagros vegetation region may act an accelerating factor for the emergence and extension of oak trees declining in the Zagros forests of Lorestan and Ilam provinces.

Keywords

• rainfall
• climate change
• oak trees decline