Temperature Prediction of Seasonal Frozen Subgrades Based on CEEMDAN-LSTM Hybrid Model

Abstract

Improving the temperature prediction accuracy for subgrades in seasonally frozen regions will greatly help improve the understanding of subgrades’ thermal states. Due to the nonlinearity and non-stationarity of the temperature time series of subgrades, it is difficult for a single general neural network to accurately capture these two characteristics. Many hybrid models have been proposed to more accurately forecast the temperature time series. Among these hybrid models, the CEEMDAN-LSTM model is promising, thanks to the advantages of the long short-term memory (LSTM) artificial neural network, which is good at handling complex time series data, and its combination with the broad applicability of the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) in the field of signal decomposition. In this study, by performing empirical mode decomposition (EMD), ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), and CEEMDAN on temperature time series, respectively, a hybrid dataset is formed with the corresponding time series of volumetric water content and frost heave, and finally, the CEEMDAN-LSTM model is created for prediction purposes. The results of the performance comparisons between multiple models show that the CEEMDAN-LSTM model has the best prediction performance compared to other decomposed LSTM models because the composition of the hybrid dataset improves predictive ability, and thus, it can better handle the nonlinearity and non-stationarity of the temperature time series data.

Keywords

• seasonal frozen subgrade
• temperature prediction
• complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN)
• long short-term memory (LSTM)