Precise prediction of polar motion using sliding multilayer perceptron method combining singular spectrum analysis and autoregressive moving average model

Abstract

Abstract The precise prediction of polar motion parameters is needed for the astrogeodynamics, navigation and positioning of the deep space probe. However, the current prediction methods are limited to predicting polar motion for specific periods, either short- or long-term. In this study, a sliding multilayer perceptron (MLP) method combined singular spectrum analysis (SSA) and autoregressive moving average (ARMA) for short- and long-term polar motion prediction was proposed. MLP was introduced into PM prediction due to its automatic learning characteristics and its ability to effectively process nonlinear and multi-dimensional data. The SSA was used to extract and predict the principal components of polar motion, while the remaining components were predicted using ARMA. In the meantime, SSA and ARMA were used to provide training data and target learning data for the MLP model. MLP input data were constructed by sliding processing with a window of 7 days, composed of n series of the same length (18 years). Finally, MLP was employed to predict the residuals generated during SSA and ARMA prediction. To evaluate the accuracy of the proposed method, the polar motion prediction was applied for a 364-day lead time based on the IERS EOP 14C04 product. The method outperformed the IERS Bulletin A, as demonstrated by the mean-absolute errors of the x and y components of polar motion on the 30th day, which were lower (5.14 mas and 3.37 mas, respectively) than those predicted by IERS Bulletin A (6.66 mas and 3.94 mas). Similarly, the mean-absolute errors on the 364th day were 17.79 mas and 16.29 mas, respectively, compared to the 19.24 mas and 18.81 mas predicted by IERS Bulletin A. Graphical Abstract

Keywords

• Polar motion prediction
• Singular spectrum analysis
• Autoregressive moving average model
• Multilayer perceptron