Looking Forward: Using Scenario Modeling to Support Regional Land Use Planning in Northern Yukon, Canada

Abstract

Regional land use planning provides opportunities for governments, land users, and stakeholders to consider multiple land and resource interests over large geographic areas and meaningful time periods. The broad and integrative nature of regional planning is therefore well suited to assessing the potential cumulative effects of current and future land use activity. For this reason, cumulative effects assessment models and management concepts are playing an increasingly important role in regional planning. We describe how the ALCES® landscape cumulative effects simulation model was used to explore possible outcomes of an oil and gas scenario in the Eagle Plain basin of the North Yukon Planning Region of Yukon Territory, Canada. Scenario modeling was conducted to facilitate informed discussion about key land use issues and practices, potential levels of landscape change, and possible socioeconomic benefits and environmental impacts. Modeling results supported the sustainable development and cumulative effects management recommendations of the North Yukon Regional Land Use Plan. Land use scenario modeling, as applied in this project, was found to be an effective approach for establishing sustainable development guidelines through a regional planning process.

Keywords

• ALCES®
• cumulative effects
• Eagle Plain
• land use planning
• limits of acceptable change
• moose
• North Yukon
• Porcupine caribou herd
• scenario modeling
• Vuntut Gwitchin
• Yukon Government