Infectious Disease Modelling (Mar 2022)

Stochastic modeling, analysis, and simulation of the COVID-19 pandemic with explicit behavioral changes in Bogotá: A case study

  • David Niño-Torres,
  • Andrés Ríos-Gutiérrez,
  • Viswanathan Arunachalam,
  • Comfort Ohajunwa,
  • Padmanabhan Seshaiyer

Journal volume & issue
Vol. 7, no. 1
pp. 199 – 211

Abstract

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In this paper, a stochastic epidemiological model is presented as an extension of a compartmental SEIR model with random perturbations to analyze the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in the city of Bogotá D.C., Colombia. This model incorporates the spread of COVID-19 impacted by social behaviors in the population and allows for projecting the number of infected, recovered, and deceased individuals considering the mitigation measures, namely confinement and partial relaxed restrictions. Also, the role of randomness using the concept of Brownian motion is emphasized to explain the behavior of the population. Computational experiments for the stochastic model with random perturbations were performed, and the model is validated through numerical simulations for actual data from Bogotá D.C.

Keywords